Athough the figures below by Forrester are alltogether impressive I dare to say that ‘results in the past are no guarantee for the future’. Windows is the foundation of more different formfactors today, just think about the Media Center. So Windows XP’s adaption history is only part of the story.
In the US consumer market, the best predictor of Windows Vista uptake is Windows XP’s adoption history. Forrester’s historical tracking of the installed base of computers — since 1998 — gives us a view into how Windows Vista will progress. Of course, creative marketing can accelerate the pace of adoption in the near term, but over the product’s lifetime, consumers’ entrenched behavior will determine Vista’s growth, from 12 million households in 2007 to 73 million households by 2011.