Sure some call it FUD: in my opinion simply because it doesn’t meet their needs. I haven’t seen the IDC report quoted in this article below. The stuff I’ve quoted from the article does stand out, because the rest is about an initiative by IBM to introduce a blogengine as a component in Workplace.
I’m just adding these statistics to my collection.
The new widgets certainly can’t hurt, given IBM’s struggle to maintain its place in the market for integrated collaborative environments. Both IDC and Gartner Inc. recently came out with studies showing that Microsoft Corp.’s Exchange rules the market, with IBM’s Lotus Notes barely keeping pace.
IDC’s report found that Microsoft controlled 51 percent of the market in 2004, compared with IBM’s 40 percent. The situation is improving for IBM, which grew its market share 5 percent last year and which had three solid quarters more recently, according to Mark Levitt, vice president of collaborative computing for IDC.
But compared with Microsoft’s growth of 23 percent over the same time frame, IBM is just limping along.
Right. Ignoring the last two quarters of publicly available information about Lotus double-digit revenue growth on Notes and Domino “doesn’t meet my needs”. Particularly when that information has already been published in the same magazine as the current article, it just “doesn’t meet my needs”.
-rich
Richard,
Fully understand your frustration. been there ..
However … Most research is about annual figures. 2 succesful quarters as you state don’t necessarily make a good year.
Afterall the numbers Ed Brill used to illustrate Lotus'”dominance” over Microsoft in his Lotusphere presentations were 2003 numers (!) at Lotusphere 2005. This means quoting numers at a time that IBM already lost their marketleading position based on the 2004 numbers.
Well, Peter, there’s a difference between what I expect either you or Ed to do and what I expect the independent press to do. I fully expect Ed to show the numbers most favorable to IBM, and I fully expect you to show the numbers most favorable to Microsoft. I expect the press to be objective, even when they express an opinion. I expect them to present the msot up-to-date numbers at all times, and to base their opinions on those numbers.
And by the way… I erred, somewhat. It’s not two consecutive quarters. It’s three. That June eWeek article that I had referred to confirmed that Q4-2004 and Q1-2005 numbers for Lotus were up, and the Q2-2005 numbers have subsequently come out showing double-digit growth.
What will happen the next three quarters? I don’t know. Neither do you. Nor Ed. Nor anyone in the press. The data we have from the last year or two is of no predictive value at all. The way relase cycles, and adoption and upgrade cycles work in this segment of the market, 8 to 10 quarters of a row of an accelerating trend in one direction or the other is about the minimum before there’s anything meaningful that anyone can say.
-rich
Richard,
I agree with mostf what you are saying
As for the press being objective, I think hey quote the analysts most of the time And yes I know the disussion about analysts ..not that I agree by the way.
I absoluetely disagree with you stateent “The data we have from the last year or two is of no predictive value at all” There is most certainly a trend which will not be turned by a few good quarter results for Lotus. IBM bet on Workplace a few years back try and turn this trend and his didn’t work out to say the least …
Of course I used 2003 numbers at Lotusphere 2005 — they were the most recent numbers published at the time. These reports from IDC and Gartner were published in July 2005, covering 2004. So, you can’t blame me for the cycle time at the analyst firms.
I’d say three consecutive quarters of double-digit growth is plenty useful in predicting the future. For the record there was also another quarter in the prior three that had similar growth.
Ed,
you’re right about the release date of the reports, so from those sources that was the only option.
Anyway the 2004 numbers are there now right in time for LotusShere 2006
As for the future : exciting ! 🙂